Sunday, February 9, 2014

Groundhog predictions....

So on February 2 every year a bunch of strange men with top hats gather in Pennsylvania to stare at a small marmot type creature and urge him to come out of his hole and then tell us how much of winter remains.  I did a little research (because with 6 more weeks of winter I have the time!) and the story is that the German settlers used to look at the ground on the 2nd and if small varmints could see their shadow it meant a late spring.  This sprung from the druids (who, by the way, left no written records so one wonders how we know what they thought) and the mid date of winter solstice and spring equinox, the Celts called it Imbolc, and then it became Candlemas.  I was curious - how often is the groundhog correct?  Turns out he has historically been correct 40% of the time.  Then I wondered how often the weather guys on the news are correct and was astonished to find that they are only correct about the same amount beyond 3-5 days!  Beyond 5 days they are no more accurate than climatology which is taking and averaging over 50 years of recorded weather patterns!

So what is the point of this information dump you ask - well there really is no point it was just something I was thinking of as we got another 6 inches of snow in the last 2 days! 

I'm really not complaining, I have a whole list of things I still hope to accomplish before the garden takes over my life and it is once again uncomfortable to have yarn on my lap!  I was just curious.  This probably should serve as a cautionary tale though - these little forays into the ethernet can just eat up an afternoon!

 So I am posting a picture of the cabbages in the ground as I plan my dinner of homemade sauerkraut and pork chops tonight and settle in in front of the fire with my baby afghan, watch the Olympics and thumb through seed catalogs.  Yes even a real winter lover can anticipate spring!

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